Election Day!!!
Election Day!!!
By Peter Goodman on June 23, 2025
We used to vote at an elementary school, which was disruptive for the school, after a few years my building convinced the Board of Elections to inspect our community room in my building, with a full kitchen. My voting site is now an elevator trip away.
I remember the voting machines of yore, swinging the voting handle, a clang, something gratifying about that noise. Now bubbling seemingly endless circles and feeding the ballot into technology.
Polling places close at 9PM, in the past a few hours later green checks on the TV screen, “predicted winners,” and today, with ranked choice voting, a week or so to transfer votes from exhausted ballots, called "rounds".
With the advent of cell phones, sophisticated cell phones contacting likely voters is difficult, my phone rings, I glance at the screen, “..potential spam,” hit delete, if I don’t recognize the number, let it go to voicemail.
Without the ability to identify a “stratified, random sample,” a microcosm of the electorate pollsters depend on “weighting” AI algorithms, with questionable accuracy. Usually, in small letters, the "measurement of accuracy," + or - 4 percent means an eight-point swing, if the candidate numbers overlap, a statistical tie. We overemphasize the accuracy and usefulness of polls.
Pre-election polls can be helpful in thinking about what to expect on Election Day, but they are not predictions of the election outcomes. Polls provide a sense of what people would do in the election if they were asked to vote right now, using a group of individuals carefully selected to mirror the public. Although polls have often accurately reflected election trends, they can and sometimes do differ from eventual results because of sampling errors, shifts in voter preferences, difficulties in recruiting some groups of individuals to take polls, and the challenges in producing effective models of who is likely to vote. Despite these challenges, polling generally comes within a few percentage points of the final result when conducted properly. However, it’s important to note that polls are estimates, not forecasts, and should be interpreted with caution, especially when the race is close.
So, after the first round Cuomo, followed by Mandani and Lander, Adams and Stringer. The other candidates in single digits.
Will the transfer of Stringer, Adams and Lander exhausted ballots push Mandani into the lead? or, will Stringer, Adams and Lander exhausted votes be sufficient for a Cuomo victory? We’ll find out in a few days, maybe a week if the race is close.
Remember, part 2 is the November General Election, Eric Adams is on an independent line, the winner of the Democratic Primary and Cuomo, also on an independent line. About a million registered voters are not registered democrats, if Cuomo loses the Democratic primary he will be on the ballot, head-to-head with Adams and the winner of the primary.
Can we find a better way?
Dueling pistols on the Palisades
Jousting
Paper, rock scissors
Michael Lange, who has an addiction to extremely detailed election analysis An Election For The Ages - by Michael Lange predicts Mandani winning by less than one percent, Michael is a Mandani fan and sees this election as a sea change, younger voters beginning to dominate the voting public.
On Saturday in my mailbox, fifteen mailers, skillfully written, supporting or opposing a candidate.
All the candidates promise more and pay for the new, shining “thing” by taxing the rich. The City has no taxing authority, only the legislature and the governor can levy or reduce taxes, and neither has shown any willingness to increase taxes.
None of the candidates have addressed the tyrannosaurus in the room, substantial reductions in federal and state dollars, billions of fewer dollars, read a scary prediction here
Tom DiNapoli, the NYS Comptroller, notes that choices made at the federal and state levels could also adversely affect city finances. For example, certain social service programs are heavily reliant on federal support and may require the city to make difficult choices about these services in the coming years. In addition, the state may need to revise its budget in the wake of federal actions, which could create substantial challenges for state aid that goes toward education, health care, and social services.
Given the recent unpredictability of federal fiscal and economic policy choices, the city should be preparing for scenarios where all of its resources – federal, state and local – may be impacted.
Some aver Mandani would be a target for Trump and disastrous for the City while Cuomo would be able to deal with him, others, Mandani is the future of the Democratic Party, we need young, vibrant candidates who can re-energize the a party dominated by old ideas, i. e., Biden and his generation.
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) is in disarray as the battle over the future of the party gets nastier. Read here and here.
Will Rogers,
“I’m not a member of any organized political party…. I’m a Democrat.”